Updated forecasts as at 30 September 2022
Lloyd’s has released updated syndicate forecasts for the 2020 and 2021 years of account. The complete schedule of syndicate forecasts is available here.
There has been a small deterioration at the aggregate level on the 2020 account, and this relates to the continuing volatility in investment markets reducing forecast investment returns in 2022 calendar year. In many cases, syndicates are forecasting an investment loss on the underwriting year. The underlying insurance elements (premiums, claims, expenses and prior year releases) have broadly been positive in the quarter.
The 2021 account has improved slightly, although we were hoping for a more material improvement in the quarter. We continue to think that the final result on this year of account will be better than the current forecasts, which look on the conservative side given the incurred loss ratios for the underwriting year.
There are no formal forecasts for the 2022 year of account at this stage and the first estimates will not be released until the account reaches the fifth quarter in March next year. The underwriting year will be impacted by Hurricane Ian, a category four hurricane that battered large parts of Florida with 150mph winds, causing widespread flooding in late September. However, given Lloyd’s syndicates’ lower than market average footprint in the state coupled with the strong rating environment across almost all lines of business, we do expect that the 2022 year will provide respectable returns to underwriting members.
The next set of results will be the year end results, which will include the final result for the 2020 year of account and an update on 2021 alongside annually accounted results for the syndicates. We expect these to start to arrive in early February next year, with Lloyd’s reporting the results for the market at the end of March.