Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicates Limited has released results for the 2019 year and updated forecasts for the 2020 year of the two syndicates it manages for third party capital. These are as follows

Syndicate 510

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Result/Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2019

1,133,052

-3.8% loss

-7.4% to -2.4%

1.1 points better

2020

1,303,290

-2.5% to 2.5%

-2.5% to 2.5%

unchanged

Syndicate 557

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Result/Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2019

32,279

1.9% profit

-0.5% to 4.5%

0.1 points worse

2020

40,037

-13.2% to -8.2%

-13.2% to -8.2%

unchanged

Chief Executive Officer, Brad Irick said “We are pleased to report that Syndicate 557 delivered a profit on the 2019 Year of Account. The loss for Syndicate 510 in the 2019 Year of Account and the forecasts for 2020 reflect the impact of Covid-19. Our results excluding Covid-19 losses are strong and give us confidence about the future.

“Looking forward, our efforts to rebalance and diversify the portfolio and leverage positive rates in lines we are focused on, is delivering excellent results. Our focus on disciplined underwriting enhanced through analytics, innovation and the bottom line will serve us well through 2022 and beyond.”

Argenta Comment

The results and forecasts for the 2019 and 2020 years are in line with previous forecasts and are relatively disappointing; both years being impacted by losses related to the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as natural catastrophe experience. However, there is a great deal of encouragement in a recent press interview with Mr Irick in the Insurance Insider. In this, TMK has revealed a full year combined ratio of 88% across the two main syndicates 510 and 1880. Syndicate 1880 is entirely capitalised by Tokio Marine Group, but the two syndicates write a combined premium income of £1.7 billion in a parallel, split stamp arrangement. This 88% combined ratio compares very favourably to both the actual combined ratio of 111% and the ratio of 93% excluding covid-19 related losses recorded for the same two entities in the year to 31 December 2020.

Another encouraging development is that TMK has also advised that, subject to board approval, it expects to close the 2017 year of account of term-life Syndicate 308 at 31 December 2021. The final result is expected to be an improvement on the previously indicated range.

As per normal Lloyd’s practice, TMK will release forecasts for the 2021 year of account after analysis of the position at the fifth quarter of development, with the forecasts released to members in May