Lloyd’s has released the forecasts for the open years of third party syndicates. A summary is available here.

There is an improvement for Argenta clients on both 2021 and 2022 years of account, although the larger increase is on the older of the two years as the account moves towards closure. The 2021 account has now improved in each of the quarters since the initial estimates were released in May last year. This steady progression has moved the ultimate result from a marginal profit, to a double digit return on capital to individual members of Lloyd’s.

There is also an improvement for Argenta clients on the 2022 underwriting year albeit a small one. The year was impacted by several natural catastrophes, most notably Hurricane Ian last September and there are some syndicates, with larger exposures to US based catastrophe events, that are underperforming. In general though, with business still on risk, we think that this year will prove to be considerably better than 2021 at closure.

We will be writing to clients next week with personalised forecast result schedules and more detailed analysis.