Lloyd's has today released estimates for the 2011 and 2012 years of account of all non-aligned syndicates. We have already been advised of many of these, which have been posted here over the past few weeks. The complete set of forecasts is now available here. The figures are based on data as at 30 June 2013 and use a US dollar exchange rate of US$1.52:£1.

It is encouraging to see a continued upward movement on the overall forecasts for 2011. Forecasts for non-aligned capacity continue to be  better than for the market as a whole, with most members via Argenta able to look forward to a profit of almost 5% of capacity. The recent trend has been for managing agents to be able to improve their forecasts as they begin to take into account movements on closed years of account, and this appears to be the case again this year.

Six syndicates have reduced their 2011forecast, while fourteen have maintained the forecast published at 31 March 2013. The remaining thirteen syndicates have improved their forecasts. Of the deteriorations, the most significant movement is Motor Syndicate 218, which has slipped further into loss with a revised midpoint 4 percentage points worse at 11% of capacity. We will be talking further with the managing agent in order to be able to provide more detail on this movement. The most significant improvement is a swing into profit of Nuclear Syndicate 1176, which now has a forecast some 22.5 percentage points better than the year end position.

We receive the data behind the forecasts over the next week or so and we will be able to comment in more detail in our next edition of the Argenta Quarterly Review, the August edition of which can be found here. One of the issues we will look at is the impact on expected investment earnings for the 2011 account following the spike in interest rates during the second quarter.

Forecasts for 2012 have also improved, with the average estimate for an Argenta client up by more than 1 percentage point to 5.7% of capacity. Five syndicates have reduced their forecasts, again with Motor Syndicate 218 being one of the more significant movements. Life Syndicate 308 shows the worst movement, although the small size of the life book and the consequent impact of individual losses can make movements inevitable. The syndicate continues to forecast an overall profit. Eleven syndicates have held their forecasts at first quarter levels, with the remaining fifteen showing a quarter on quarter improvement.