Atrium Underwriters Limited has provided us with updated forecasts for the open years of syndicate 609 as follows:

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2019

449,780

2.5% to 7.5%

2.5% to 7.5%

unchanged

2020

525,642

2.5% to 12.5%

2.5% to 12.5%

unchanged

Forecasts are expressed as a percentage of syndicate allocated capacity and are after all standard personal expenses but before members’ agents’ fees and charges. Forecasts are based on  assumptions listed below and can change. Given the ongoing nature of the Covid-19 pandemic and the related economic impact particular attention is drawn to assumptions 1 and 6.

  1. Inherent volatility in claims development will not give rise to actual ultimate claims which are materially divergent from expectations. In particular there will be no significant distortion in the incidence of major catastrophe or attritional losses or in the ability of the syndicates’ reinsurers to respond to potential reinsurance recoveries;
  2. The development of open year premiums will be broadly consistent with historical development patterns;
  3. There will be no material change in reserving methodology or accounting policies at the respective dates of closure of the open years;
  4. Inflation, interest and exchange rates as at the respective dates of closure of the open years will not differ significantly from those taken into account in the forecasts;
  5. There will be no material unbudgeted expenses; and
  6. Investment returns will be materially in line with investment manager expectations.