Atrium Underwriters Limited has provided us with an updated forecast for the 2019 year of account of Syndicate 609 and an initial forecast for the 2020 account as follows:

Year of account


Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast

Change at



2.5% to 7.5%

0.0% to 10.0%




2.5% to 12.5%


Current forecasts are based on data to 31 March 2021; the previous forecast on data to 31 December 2020.

Atrium has provided a list of key assumptions on which the open year forecasts are based. These are as follows:

1. Inherent volatility in claims development will not give rise to actual ultimate claims which are materially divergent from expectations. In particular there will be no significant distortion in the incidence of major catastrophe or attritional losses or in the ability of the syndicates’ reinsurers to respond to potential reinsurance recoveries;

2. The development of open year premiums will be broadly consistent with historical development patterns;

3. There will be no material change in reserving methodology or accounting policies at the respective dates of closure of the open years;

4. Inflation, interest and exchange rates as at the respective dates of closure of the open years will not differ significantly from those taken into account in the forecasts;

5. There will be no material unbudgeted expenses; and

6. Investment returns will be materially in line with investment manager expectations.

As usual, syndicate forecasts are expressed as a percentage of allocated capacity and are after all standard personal expenses but before members’ agents’ fees.