QBE Underwriting Limited has provided us with updated forecasts for the open years of syndicate 386 as follows:


Year of account


Forecast as at

30 June 2015

Forecast as at

31 March 2015

Change at midpoint



4.4% to 9.4%

7.6% to 12.6%

Down 3.2 points



5.3% to 10.3%

6.3% to 11.3%

Down 1.0 points

Although the 2013 pure year continues to develop in line with plan, there have been further deterioration on the closed years. In particular, there is adverse movement on International GL (Australia especially) and general attritional deterioration on the professional indemnity account.

The 2014 account is performing broadly in line with plan, although the managing agent has decided to increase the forecast ultimate loss ratio at this stage.

Forecasts are expressed as a percentage of capacity and after all standard personal expenses other than members’ agents’ fees and charges.