Equity Syndicate Management Limited has confirmed the result of Syndicate 218’s 2011 account and updated the 2012 forecast as follows:

 

 

Result/Forecast as at

31 December 2013

Forecast as at

30 September 2013

Change at Midpoint

2011

12.57% loss

16% loss to 6% loss

-1.57 percentage points

2012

5.29% loss to 4.71% profit

7.5% loss to 2.5% profit

+2.21 percentage points

The 2011 account has been impacted by a further reserve movement on prior years, which added just under 5 percentage points to the loss. The actuarial range underlying these reserves continues to be wide, and the we understand management has included an 8% risk margin on net claim reserves (up from 5% at the close of 2010) to reflect the degree of uncertainty.

The 2012 account continues to track closely to the syndicate business forecast, with the caveat that the level of investment income in the original plan is unlikely to be achieved in the present economic climate. It is nonetheless encouraging that the overall forecast has been increased by over two points of capacity. The final result will depend to a large degree on the performance of the reserves for 2011 and prior years during the calendar year 2014.

There is no formal forecast for the 2013 account at this stage; the management has indicated an expected result close to breakeven following the disposal of non-motor products and the continuing remediation of the business.

This result completes the summary of syndicates supported by clients advised by Argenta Private Capital. A full summary of results is attached.

The Lloyd’s market results will be declared on Wednesday 26 March.