Argenta Syndicate Management Limited has provided us with results and updated forecasts for the open years of Syndicate 2121. In summary, these are follows:

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Result/Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2018

340,000

-12.2% loss

-15.0% to -5.0%

2.2 points worse

2019

339,845

-20.0% to -5.0%

-20.0% to -5.0%

unchanged

2020

424,736

-2.0% to 8.0%

-5.5% to 7.0%

2.3 points better

The 2018 account was left open at the end of 2020, as there was material uncertainty around some of the Covid-19 property business interruption exposures. The board of ASML considers that the position on this year of account has now stabilised sufficiently to allow the closure by reinsurance into the 2020 year of Syndicate 2121.

The 2019 year is also impacted by Covid-19 loss exposures and there remain several ongoing legal issues that need to be resolved. The board of ASML has concluded that it is not possible to determine a reinsurance to close premium with the necessary degree of confidence at this stage. The 2019 account will therefore remain open at 31 December 2021 pending greater clarity on these remaining issues. The point estimate at 36 months is a loss of 10.97% of allocated capacity.

The 2020 account was exposed to some covid-19 claims, although the year is now developing in a satisfactory manner, with the board able to improve the forecast range. Some elements of business do remain on risk.

The 2021 account has benefitted from rate increases which generally have run ahead of business plan expectations. The account has been impacted by a frequency of significant losses, which means it is currently behind planned levels of profit. A significant volume of business remains on risk, with premium to be earned in 2022 and 2023 to give some optimism that a favourable outcome will be achieved.

The annually accounted result for the syndicate under UK GAAP is a profit of £9.8m at a combined ratio of 97.6%.

A reminder that Argenta clients will be able to see and hear Ian Burford,  Active Underwriter and Underwriting Director of ASML, discuss the syndicate results and the prospects for 2022 in an online seminar on Monday afternoon.

Syndicate results and forecasts are expressed as a percentage of allocated capacity and are after all standard personal expenses but before members’ agents’ fees.