R.J. Kiln has made a press release with updated forecasts for its managed syndicates as at 30 September 2013. Please note that Kiln recasts the previous forecasts using the more recent rates of exchange. This helps identify movements that are down to currency from those that are due to improving underwriting figures. For the sake of clarity, the latest forecasts at prevailing rates of exchange compared with the previous forecasts at rates of exchange prevailing in June are as follows:

2011 year of account

Syndicate

Forecast as at

30 June 2013

Forecast as at

30 September 2013

Change

308

1.3% to 6.3%

2.8% to 7.8%

+1.5%

510

5.1% to 10.1%

4.7% to 9.7%

-0.4%

557

5.6% to 10.6%

5.9% to 10.9%

+0.3%

807

(3.9%) to 1.9%

0.6% to 5.6%

+4.5%

2012 year of account

Syndicate

Forecast as at

30 June 2013

Forecast as at

30 September 2013

Change

308

1.6% to 6.6%

3.9% to 8.9%

+2.3%

510

1.3% to 6.3%

1.9% to 6.9%

+0.6%

557

1.6% to 6.6%

2.3% to 7.3%

+0.7%

Kiln Press Release

News Release

14 November 2013 
For immediate release
R J Kiln & Co Limited syndicate forecasts 
Highlights
  • ​Strong performance in the 2013 calendar year to date
    • 

  • All syndicates are forecast to deliver a profit for the 2011 and 2012 YOA
    • 

  • Focused on product innovation to address changing risk portfolios
    • 

  •  
    • 

​R J Kiln & Co Limited, part of the Tokio Marine Group, has released updated forecasts for the 2011 and 2012 years of account for its non-aligned syndicates.


Charles Franks, Chief Executive Officer of R J Kiln & Co, said: “I am delighted to report that Kiln is on track to deliver a strong underwriting performance in 2013. Despite difficult trading conditions, our underlying book is performing well and we have had a relatively benign catastrophe environment with the exception of some minor storm events.


“Market conditions remain challenging, which has reinforced the need to maintain our strict underwriting standards focusing on profit, not premium. Whilst growth year-on-year has been strong into 2013, these conditions will inevitably have some effect on our top line against target. I am pleased to report that Syndicate 807, which is in run off, is forecast to close with a profit in its final year.


“In this environment, we remain committed to fostering an entrepreneurial culture that allows innovation to thrive and enables us to add value to our clients.” 


The previous forecasts, which were announced in August 2013, have been rebased to the same exchange rates (US$1.62 and C$1.66). The forecasts set out below take into account all managing agency and Lloyd’s charges.


2011 year of account forecasts


 




Syndicate




Capacity
£m




2011 year of account


forecast range




Previous forecast


as at August 2013





510




922




4.7% to 9.7%




4.3% to 9.3%





557




60




5.9% to 10.9%




5.1% to 10.1%





807




140




0.6% to 5.6%




(4.2%) to 0.8%





308




20




2.8% to 7.8%




1.2% to 6.2%



All syndicates have shown improvements throughout the quarter. The forecasts for Syndicates 510 and 557 have improved slightly due to favourable claims run-off on 2011. Syndicate 807 has reported a significantly improved forecast since the prior quarter, with the midpoint of the range moving into profit. This was driven by reductions to reserves held for Superstorm Sandy and the Thai floods, as well as improvements on the prior years. Kiln’s Life Syndicate 308 has also reported an improved forecast range following favourable claims experience.


2012 year of account forecasts


 




Syndicate




Capacity
£m




2012 year of account


forecast range %




Previous forecast


as at August 2013 %





510




1,062




1.9% to 6.9%




0.8% to 5.8%





557




56




2.3% to 7.3%




1.7% to 6.7%





308




23




3.9% to 8.9%




1.4% to 6.4%



The 2012 non–life syndicates are developing well, with the forecast ranges for Syndicate’s 510 and 557 showing improvements following a benign hurricane season. Syndicate 308 has also benefitted from favourable claims development this quarter.