Atrium Syndicate 609 – updated forecasts as at Q1 2023

Atrium Underwriters Limited has provided us with the following update for Syndicate 609:

Year of account


Updated Forecast

Previous Forecast

Change at



5.0% to 15.0%

5.0% to 15.0%




5.0% to 15.0%



Atrium stresses that this year of account does have the most exposure to possible claims arising out of western leased aircraft in Russia. This remains a complicated situation, with a range of potential outcomes and one where the evidential picture is still evolving. The forecast result includes modelling of a range of potential outcomes, with the aggregate reserve based on probabilistic framework. There does remain potential variation in the reserves greater than the usual level of reserve volatility.

Given the uncertainties around possible aviation claims, Atrium has drawn attention to its usual set of caveats around the assumptions used in arriving at open year forecasts.

Syndicate forecasts are expressed as a percentage of capacity and are after all standard personal expenses but before members’ agents’ fees.