Atrium Underwriters Limited has provided us with the result of the 2019 year for syndicate 609 and an update to the forecast for 2020 year of account at the 24 month stage. These are as follows

Year of account


Result/Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast

Change at



6.2% profit

2.5% to 7.5%

1.2 points better



7.5% to 15.0%

5.0% to 15.0%

1.3 points better

Results and forecasts are shown as a percentage of allocated syndicate capacity and are after all standard personal expenses but before members’ agents’ fees. Atrium draws members of the syndicate to the following list of assumptions on which forecasts are based, adding that particular attention should be paid to assumptions 1 and 6 in the light of the ongoing nature of Covid-19.

1. Inherent volatility in claims development will not give rise to actual ultimate claims which are materially divergent from expectations. In particular there will be no significant distortion in the incidence of major catastrophe or attritional losses or in the ability of the syndicates’ reinsurers to respond to potential reinsurance recoveries;

2. The development of open year premiums will be broadly consistent with historical development patterns;

3. There will be no material change in reserving methodology or accounting policies at the respective dates of closure of the open years;

4. Inflation, interest and exchange rates as at the respective dates of closure of the open years will not differ significantly from those taken into account in the forecasts;

5. There will be no material unbudgeted expenses; and

6. Investment returns will be materially in line with investment manager expectations.