We have today received updated forecasts from Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicate Limited and from Argo Managing Agency Limited.

Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicates

Forecasts as at 30 September 2017

2015 account

 

 

Capacity

Estimates at 30 June 2017

Estimates at 30 Sep 2017

Change in

Midpoint

Syndicate

£000s

Worst

Best

Midpoint

Worst

Best

Midpoint

510

1,062,852

7.72

12.73

10.23

7.70

12.70

10.20

(0.03)

557

34,867

23.98

28.98

26.48

26.30

31.30

28.80

2.32

308

32,000

(9.82)

(4.82)

(7.32)

(11.90)

(6.90)

(9.40)

(2.08)

 2016 account

 

Capacity

Estimates at 30 June 2017

Estimates at 30 Sep 2017

Change in

Midpoint

Syndicate

£000s

Worst

Best

Midpoint

Worst

Best

Midpoint

510

1,061,786

(1.22)

3.79

1.29

(3.30)

1.70

(0.80)

(2.09)

557

34,710

9.72

14.72

12.22

10.00

15.00

12.50

0.28

308

31,879

(0.94)

4.06

1.56

(14.40)

(9.40)

(11.90)

(13.46)

 TMK released the following statement (the original version is available here)

Highlights

  • Exciting rating prospects for 2018
  • Focused on supporting customers and paying valid claims promptly following third-quarter catastrophes
  • Syndicates 510 and 557 have shown improvements on the 2015 year of account following a benign quarter, with both forecasting good profits
  • Syndicate 510's forecast for the 2016 year of account reflects losses on the recent hurricane activity
  • TMKS has applied for the cessation of Life Syndicate 308, which is subject to Lloyd’s consent

Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicates Limited (TMKS) today released updated forecasts for the 2015 and 2016 years of account for its three non-aligned syndicates.

Charles Franks, Chief Executive Officer of Tokio Marine Kiln, said: "The significant claims arising from Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria are serving to demonstrate the true value of insurance. Our main priority is to support our customers who have been affected by these devastating catastrophes by handling claims promptly.

"The outlook for the rating environment is very exciting. For the first time in years, we are seeing prices showing marked increases as the market responds to the third quarter catastrophes. We are poised to seize appropriate opportunities as they arise, focusing on strategically important areas that play to our strengths and enable our customers to thrive, whilst maintaining underwriting discipline.   

"Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicates Limited has applied for the cessation of its Life syndicate 308 to Lloyd's and the syndicate members. We are committed to ensuring existing business is serviced to the highest standards and that there will be no detriment to policyholders as a result of this action. No other syndicates or business lines, including Accident and Health business written through Syndicate 510, are affected by this decision. Further communications will be shared once these discussions have concluded."

The previous forecasts, which were announced in August 2017, have been rebased to the same exchange rates (US$1.34 and C$1.68). The forecasts set out below take into account all managing agency and Lloyd’s charges.

2015 year of account forecasts

 

 

Capacity

Estimates at 30 June 2017

Estimates at 30 Sep 2017

Syndicate

£000s

Worst

Best

Midpoint

Worst

Best

Midpoint

510

1,062,852

7.20

12.70

9.95

7.70

12.70

10.20

557

34,867

23.00

28.00

25.50

26.30

31.30

28.80

308

32,000

(9.70)

(4.70)

(7.20)

(11.90)

(6.90)

(9.40)

Syndicates 510 and 557 have shown improvement as a result of favourable claims development, primarily on the closed years following a benign quarter.

The forecast range for Life Syndicate 308 has decreased in the quarter as the syndicate has incurred several late claims across the book.

2016 year of account forecasts

 

Capacity

Estimates at 30 June 2017

Estimates at 30 Sep 2017

Change at midpoint

Syndicate

£000s

Worst

Best

Midpoint

Worst

Best

Midpoint

510

1,061,786

(1.22)

3.79

1.29

(3.30)

1.70

(0.80)

-2.09

557

34,710

9.72

14.72

12.22

10.00

15.00

12.50

+0.28

308

31,879

(0.94)

4.06

1.56

(14.40)

(9.40)

(11.90)

-13.46

Syndicate 510's 2016 forecast range has decreased as a result of the recent hurricane activity in the US and Caribbean, primarily through its binder book. In contrast, the 2016 year of account on Syndicate 557 has had little exposure to catastrophes during the year and as a result, the syndicate remains on course to make a good profit with an improvement in the quarter.

Following an actuarial review, Life Syndicate 308's forecast range has deteriorated significantly in the quarter due to anticipated adverse claims experience.

Argenta comment – TMK provides the comparative forecasts on the basis of the old forecast result restated using the most recent rates of exchange. This means that the forecast results as per TMK at 30 June as stated are slightly different from those that were advised to clients in August and differ slightly from the table we have produced at the top of the page.

Argo Syndicate 1200

Argo has advised us of the following updated estimates

 

Capacity

Estimates at 30 June 2017

Estimates at 30 Sep 2017

 

Year of account

£000s

Worst

Best

Midpoint

Worst

Best

Midpoint

Change at Midpoint

2015

349,978

(1.00)

(9.00)

4.00

(2.00)

8.00

(3.00)

-1.00

2016

424,869

(7.00)

(3.00)

(2.00)

(11.00)

(1.00)

(6.00)

-4.00

2017

425,000

 

 

3.70

 

 

(9.80)

-9.80

The estimate for 2017 is indicative only as there is no requirement on managing agents to release this information at this stage.