Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicates Limited has provided us with updated forecasts for the 2015 and 2016 years of account of Syndicates 308, 510 and 557 as follows.

Tokio Marine Kiln announces latest Lloyd’s syndicate forecasts

11 May 2017

Highlights
• Syndicates 510 and 557 have shown improvements on the 2015 year of account following a benign quarter
• All syndicates are forecast to deliver profits for the 2016 year of account
• Focused on disciplined underwriting and creating growth opportunities in 2017

Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicates Limited today released updated forecasts for the 2015 and 2016 years of account for its three non-aligned syndicates.

Charles Franks, Chief Executive Officer of Tokio Marine Kiln, said: “While market conditions remain challenging, we are creating opportunities through our focus on disciplined underwriting and innovation. Our One TMK digital platform, which provides access to a range of specialist insurance products from our broad portfolio, is showing encouraging results following its launch last year and we are actively embracing the changes being driven by market modernisation and digital transformation, which will benefit experienced and agile insurers in the future.”

The previous forecasts, which were announced in February 2017, have been rebased to the same exchange rates (US$1.25 and C$1.67). The forecasts set out below take into account all managing agency and Lloyd’s charges. 

2015 Year of Account

Syndicate

Capacity £m

Current forecast

Previous forecast

510

1,063

7.0% to 12.0%

5.8% to 10.8%

557

35

24.5% to 29.5%

23.6% to 28.6%

308

32

-8.6% to -3.6%

-5.6% to -0.6%

Syndicates 510 and 557 have shown improvement as a result of favourable claims development, primarily on the closed years following a benign quarter. The forecast range for Life Syndicate 308 has fallen due to adverse claims experience.

2016 Year of Account

Syndicate

Capacity £m

Current forecast

Previous forecast

510

1,064

-0.5% to +4.5%

-0.6% to +4.4%

557

35

+9.0% to +14.0%

+8.0% to+13.0%

308

32

-0.3% to +4.7%

+0.4% to +5.4%

Syndicate 557 remains on course to make a profit with an improvement driven by favourable claims experience following a benign quarter. 

Argenta Comment: Tokio Marine Kiln always recast the previous quarter’s forecasts at the current rate of exchange so that any movements relate to underwriting changes rather than the changes in foreign exchange. This can mean that the comparative result shown here can be different to the forecast given as at 31 December 2016. Also, the forecast for the 2016 account at 31 December 2016 was given as a ten point range whereas the comparatives are in a five point range.

Forecasts as 31 December 2016 as reported in February 2017 were as follows:

2015 year of account

 

Syndicate

Forecast Range

308

-5.9% to -0.9%

510

+5.95% to +10.95%

557

+23.88% to +28.88%

2016 year of account

 

Syndicate

Forecast Range

308

-2.1% to +7.9%

510

-3.0% to +7.0%

557

+5.6% to 15.6%