Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicates Limited has released updated forecasts for the three syndicates it manages that are supported by third party capital in the following press release.

Highlights
• Syndicates 510 and 557 have shown improvements on the 2015 year of account following a benign quarter
• All syndicates are forecast to deliver profits for the 2016 year of account
• Focused on an innovation strategy to create opportunities

Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicates Limited today released updated forecasts for the 2015 and 2016 years of account for its three non-aligned syndicates.

Charles Franks, Chief Executive Officer of Tokio Marine Kiln, said "Despite the absence of the market cycle and enormous pressure in traditional classes, this is an age of opportunity for insurers that are proactive in meeting the needs of clients whose risk profiles are changing. We are investing in innovation through new products and value added services, as well as being strong supporters of market efficiency initiatives to ensure we remain relevant and that we can deliver continued profitable growth."

The previous forecasts, which were announced in May 2017, have been rebased to the same exchange rates (US$1.30 and C$1.69). The forecasts set out below take into account all managing agency and Lloyd’s charges.

2015 year of account forecasts

 

Syndicate                            

Capacity
£m                                              

2015 year of account forecast range %

Previous forecast range as at May 2017 %

510

1,063

7.7 to 12.7

6.4 to 11.4

557

35

24.0 to 29.0

23.2 to 28.2

308

32

-9.8 to -4.8

-8.5 to -3.5

Syndicates 510 and 557 have shown improvement as a result of favourable claims development on both the open and closed years following a benign quarter. 

The forecast range for Life Syndicate 308 has decreased due to adverse claims experience.

 

2016 year of account forecasts

 

Syndicate                            

Capacity
£m                                              

2016 year of account forecast range %

Previous forecast range as at May 2017 %

510

1,062

-1.2 to 3.8

-0.8 to 4.2

557

35

9.7 to 14.7

8.3 to 13.3

308

32

-0.9 to 4.1

-0.3 to 4.7

Syndicate 557 remains on course to make a good profit with an improvement in the quarter driven by favourable claims experience. The forecast ranges for Syndicate 510 and Syndicate 308 remain stable.

Argenta Comment

TMK reports the previous forecast reconverted at current rates of exchange rather than those that prevailed at the time the forecast was made. This means that changes in the forecasts relate to changes in the underwriting, expenses and investment income projections (the parts that they can manage) rather than changes in the rates of exchange (which are out of their control). The following table compares the forecasts released today with the previous forecasts made using 31 March exchange rates

2015 year of account

 

Capacity
£000s

Forecast range as at 30 June 2017

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

308

32,000

-9.8% to -4.8%

-8.6% to -3.6%

1.2 points worse

510

1,062,852

7.7% to 12.7%

7.0% to 12.0%

0.7 points better

557

34,867

24.0% to 29.0%

24.5% to 29.5%

0.5 points worse

 2016 year of account

 

Capacity
£000s

Forecast range as at 30 June 2017

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

308

31,879

-0.9% to 4.1%

-0.3% to 4.7%

0.6 points worse

510

1,061,786

-1.2% to 3.8%

-0.5% to 4.5%

0.7 points worse

557

34,710

9.7% to 14.7%

9.0% to 14.0%

0.7 points better