Charles Taylor has revised the forecast for the 2015 account of Standard Syndicate 1884 as follows:

 

Year of
account

Capacity
£000s

Result/Revised
forecast range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2015

36,000

-50.0% to -40.0%

-49.8% to -29.9%

5.1 points worse

2016

90,000

No forecast at this stage

 

 

The 2015 account is the syndicate’s first year. It commenced underwriting on 1 April 2015. Although the other parts of the account are broadly performing in line with plan, the hull account, which accounts for more than 50% of the total premium volume, has deteriorated further. The managing agent has reduced the size of the forecast range as the account is now more mature. It has increased the projected loss at the better end of the range while holding the worst end of the range constant. This results in an overall adverse movement of 5 per cent of capacity at midpoint.

AmTrust has advised us of the following results and updated forecasts for its managed syndicates. These include syndicates formerly managed by ANV Syndicates Limited. AmTrust acquired the ANV business in the second half of 2016.

 Syndicate 779

 

Year of
account

Capacity
£000s

Result/Revised
forecast range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2014

22,281

-8.7% loss

-9.0% to -4.0%

2.2 points worse

2015

22,241

-9.0% to -4.0%

-9.0% to -4.0%

Unchanged

2016

22,281

No forecast at this stage

 

 

The 2014 account remains open at 31.12.16 and is expected to close simultaneously with the 2015 and 2016 accounts at 31.12.18. The syndicate ceased trading at the end of 2016.  

Syndicate 2526

 

Year of
account

Capacity
£000s

Result/Revised
forecast range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2014

64,138

-18.6% loss

-23.4% to -18.4%

2.3 points better

2015

64,138

-13.3% to -8.3%

-13.3% to -8.3%

Unchanged

2016

60,000

No forecast at this stage

n/a

 

The 2014 account remains open at 31.12.16

The 2013 account also remains open at 31.12.16 with a cumulative loss of 105.4% of capacity. This represents a small improvement from the previous (30/9/16) forecast loss of 106.2%, but a calendar year deterioration of 34.9% of capacity from the forecast loss as at 31.12.15 of 70.5% of capacity.

Syndicate 5820

 

Year of
account

Capacity
£000s

Result/Revised
forecast range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2014

131,067

-7.3% loss

-12.5% to -7.5%

2.7 points better

2015

130,943

-7.5% to -2.0%

-7.5% to -2.0%

Unchanged

2016

131,123

No forecast at this stage

n/a

 

All results and forecasts are expressed as a percentage of syndicate allocated capacity and are after the deduction of all standard personal expenses other than members’ agents’ fees and charges.

We now have all results and forecasts for those syndicates with third party capacity for the 2014 and 2015 years of account with the exception of two syndicates that are re-evaluating their reserving position in the light of the Lord Chancellor’s recent decision to reduce the discount rate used by courts in establishing the quantum of lump sum settlements for long term bodily injury compensation (the so-called Ogden tables). These are QBE Syndicate 386 and ERS Syndicate 218 for which we anticipate results in the next seven days. The Lloyd’s aggregate results will be available on 30 March.

A full list of results received to date is attached here.