Syndicate forecasts as at 30 June 2018
We have received the following updated forecasts based on data as at 30 June 2018 from managing agents
QBE Syndicate 386
year of account |
Capacity |
Revised forecast Range |
Previous Forecast |
Change at |
2016 |
352,164 |
5.4% to 10.4% |
1.4% to 6.4% |
4.0 points better |
2017 |
316,636 |
5.2% to 10.2% |
3.8% to 8.8% |
1.4 points better |
QBE reports that both years of account are experiencing more favourable than anticipated claims developments and an increase in the expected investment income, while forecast premium income for the 2017 year of account has also increased.
Atrium Syndicate 609
year of account |
Capacity |
Revised forecast Range |
Previous Forecast |
Change at |
2016 |
418,764 |
5.0% to 10.0% |
5.0% to 10.0% |
Unchanged |
2017 |
419,238 |
-7.5% to 2.5% |
-7.5% to 2.5% |
Unchanged |
Coverys Syndicate 1991
year of account |
Capacity |
Revised forecast Range |
Previous Forecast |
Change at |
2016 |
129,740 |
-6.3% to 3.7% |
-6.3% to 3.7% |
Unchanged |
2017 |
126,750 |
0.0% to 10.0% |
0.0% to 10.0% |
Unchanged |
AmTrust Syndicate 779
The 2014 and 2015 years of account were not closed at the end of 2017. The forecast results for the run-off years are as follows:
year of account |
Capacity £000s |
Forecast range at 30 June 2018 |
Result as at 30 June 2018 |
Result as at 31 December 2018 |
Movement in year to date |
2014 |
22,281 |
-11.5% to -6.5% |
-8.88% |
-8.12% |
0.76 points worse |
2015 |
22,241 |
-9.0% to -4.0% |
-7.99% |
-7.41% |
0.58 points worse |
2016 was the final year of this syndicate and the forecast for this year of account is unchanged for loss in the range 25% to 35% of capacity. Capacity for the 2016 year was £22.2m. AmTrust anticipates closing the 2014, 2015 and 2016 account simultaneously at the end of this year with Syndicate 44, another life syndicate managed by AmTrust, likely to provide the reinsurance to close.
AmTrust Syndicate 2526
Year of account |
Capacity £000s |
Forecast range at 30 June 2018 |
Result as at 30 June 2018 |
Result as at 31 December 2018 |
Movement in year to date |
2013 |
£59,650 |
-90.0% to -80.0% |
-83.25% |
-84.75% |
1.5 points better |
2014 |
£64,138 |
-18.0% to -13.0% |
-14.95% |
-15.41% |
0.46 points better |
2015 |
£64,138 |
-10.0% to 0% |
-2.34% |
-3.32% |
0.98 points better |
The forecast for the 2016 account is unchanged, at a loss in the range 12% to 22% of capacity. The capacity for the year was £60.0m. AmTrust expects to close all open years of this syndicate simultaneously at the end of 2018.
AmTrust Syndicate 5820
The forecast for the 2016, the final year in which non-aligned members participated, is unchanged with a range of loss between 5% and 15% of capacity. Capacity for the year was £131.0m.
All forecasts are expressed as a percentage of allocated capacity and are after all standard personal expenses but before the deduction of members’ agents’ fees and charges.
Lloyd’s is due to release all syndicate forecasts for the 2016 and 2017 accounts to the London Stock Exchange tomorrow.
Who to Contact
-
Jeremy BrayHead of Syndicate Research, APCL Director, AIRLDirect line: +44 (0)20 7825 7174Email: jeremy.bray@argentagroup.com
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Andrew ColcombDirector, AIRLDirect line: +44 (0)20 7825 7176