We have received the following updated forecasts based on data as at 30 June 2018 from managing agents

QBE Syndicate 386

 

year of account

Capacity
£000s

Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2016

352,164

5.4% to 10.4%

1.4% to 6.4%

4.0 points better

2017

316,636

5.2% to 10.2%

3.8% to 8.8%

1.4 points better

QBE reports that both years of account are experiencing more favourable than anticipated claims developments and an increase in the expected investment income, while forecast premium income for the 2017 year of account has also increased.

Atrium Syndicate 609

 

year of account

Capacity
£000s

Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2016

418,764

5.0% to 10.0%

5.0% to 10.0%

Unchanged

2017

419,238

-7.5% to 2.5%

-7.5% to 2.5%

Unchanged

 Coverys Syndicate 1991

 

year of account

Capacity
£000s

Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2016

129,740

-6.3% to 3.7%

-6.3% to 3.7%

Unchanged

2017

126,750

0.0% to 10.0%

0.0% to 10.0%

Unchanged

 AmTrust Syndicate 779

The 2014 and 2015 years of account were not closed at the end of 2017. The forecast results for the run-off years are as follows:

 

year of account

Capacity

£000s

Forecast range at 30 June 2018

Result as at 30 June 2018

Result as at 31 December 2018

Movement in year to date

2014

22,281

-11.5% to -6.5%

-8.88%

-8.12%

0.76 points worse

2015

22,241

-9.0% to -4.0%

-7.99%

-7.41%

0.58 points worse

2016 was the final year of this syndicate and the forecast for this year of account is unchanged for loss in the range 25% to 35% of capacity. Capacity for the 2016 year was £22.2m. AmTrust anticipates closing the 2014, 2015 and 2016 account simultaneously at the end of this year with Syndicate 44, another life syndicate managed by AmTrust, likely to provide the reinsurance to close.

AmTrust Syndicate 2526

 

Year of account

Capacity

£000s

Forecast range at 30 June 2018

Result as at 30 June 2018

Result as at 31 December 2018

Movement in year to date

2013

£59,650

-90.0% to -80.0%

-83.25%

-84.75%

1.5 points better

2014

£64,138

-18.0% to -13.0%

-14.95%

-15.41%

0.46 points better

2015

£64,138

-10.0% to 0%

-2.34%

-3.32%

0.98 points better

The forecast for the 2016 account is unchanged, at a loss in the range 12% to 22% of capacity. The capacity for the year was £60.0m. AmTrust expects to close all open years of this syndicate simultaneously at the end of 2018.

AmTrust Syndicate 5820

The forecast for the 2016, the final year in which non-aligned members participated, is unchanged with a range of loss between 5% and 15% of capacity. Capacity for the year was £131.0m.

All forecasts are expressed as a percentage of allocated capacity and are after all standard personal expenses but before the deduction of members’ agents’ fees and charges.

Lloyd’s is due to release all syndicate forecasts for the 2016 and 2017 accounts to the London Stock Exchange tomorrow.