S.A. Meacock & Co Ltd has provided us with the first formal forecast for the 2012 account of Syndicate 727 and an update for the 2011 account as at 31 March 2013. The forecasts for both years are in a wider than usual range and are between a loss of 3% of capacity and a profit of 15% of capacity. The 2011 forecast is unchanged from the position as at 31 December 2012. Forecasts have been made applying an exchange rate of $1.52:£1 and Can$1.54:£1. As Syndicate 727 has one of the largest reinsurances to close in the market (£182m or 225% of stamp capacity as at 31 December 2012), much of the final result will be determined by any movements in old years and by investment returns achieved on the syndicate fund.

All managing agents are required to make their first formal estimate of the 2012 account at the 15 months stage. Some will advise us directly, and we will post them here as they arrive, but others prefer to allow the information to be disseminated via Lloyd’s, which will release the data for all syndicates during the week of 27 May.