Argenta Syndicate Management Limited has provided us with an updated forecast for the 2018 year of syndicate 2121 and an initial forecast for the 2019 account as follows:

 

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2018

340,000

-13.5% to -3.5%

-11.0% to -3.5%

1.2 points worse

2019

340,000

-12.5% to +2.5%

   

The movement on the 2018 account is attributed to lower anticipated investment earnings following reduction in interest rates in recent weeks. Investment earnings are also expected to be lower in 2019. The vast majority of the anticipated Covid-19 claims activity, arising out of the syndicate’s trade credit and property accounts, falls to the 2019 year. As the syndicate writes much of its US property exposures under delegated authorities, values at risk for the 2019 account are substantial throughout the 2020 wind season, so the syndicate is carrying a large catastrophe load until this business runs off.

Syndicate forecasts are expressed as a percentage of allocated syndicate capacity and are after all standard personal expenses but before members’ agents’ fees and charges.