We were advised of the results and forecasts for Asta managed Syndicate 2525 on 21 February. As there was a review of the discount rate used to establish the quantum of lump sum compensation for bodily injury claims under way, the managing agent factored a reduction in this rate into its year end reserving. It assumed that the discount rate (also known as the Ogden rate) would reduce from 2.5% to 1%. A much larger reduction, from 2.5% to -0.75%, was announced by the Lord Chancellor on 27 February. The difference to the reserving requirements of a specialist employers’ liability and public liability syndicate such as Syndicate 2525 is material enough for the managing agent to need reassess reserving requirements. The managing agent has now advised us a revised result for Syndicate 2525’s 2014 account. The account has closed with a profit of 10.78% of capacity. The result advised on 21 February was a profit of 11.3% but the range forecast as at 30 September was for a profit between 4% and 9% of capacity. Although the result is 0.5% worse than first reported, it is 4.3 points better than the last forecast range.

There is no change to the forecast for the 2015 account, which remains between a loss of 7.5% of capacity and a profit of 7.5% of capacity. This was also the range published in the forecast based on data as at 30 September.

In all cases, results and forecasts are reported as a percentage of syndicate allocated capacity and are after all standard personal expenses other than members’ agents’ fees and charges.

The complete list of results advised to date is attached here.