Atrium Underwriters Limited has provided us with an updated forecast for the 2015 account of Syndicate 609 and an initial forecast for the 2016 account as follows:

 

Year

Capacity

Forecast as at 31.3.17

Forecast as at 31.12.16

2015

£420.1m

0% to 7.5%

0% to 7.5%

2016

£418.8m

0% to 10%

n/a

Forecasts are expressed as a percentage of allocated capacity and are after all standard personal expenses but before members’ agents’ fees and charges. The rate of exchange used for the 31 March forecasts is US$1.25:£1.

The key assumptions upon which each syndicates’ open year forecasts are based are set out below: 

1. Inherent volatility in claims development will not give rise to actual ultimate claims which are materially divergent from expectations. In particular there will be no significant distortion in the incidence of major catastrophe or attritional losses or in the ability of the syndicates’ reinsurers to respond to potential reinsurance recoveries;

2. The development of open year premiums will be broadly consistent with historical development patterns;   

3. There will be no material change in reserving methodology or accounting policies at the respective dates of closure of the open years;

4. Inflation, interest and exchange rates as at the respective dates of closure of the open years will not differ significantly from those taken into account in the forecasts;

5. There will be no material unbudgeted expenses; and

6. Investment returns will be materially in line with investment manager expectations.