2011 and 2012 Syndicate Estimates as at 31 March 2013
Lloyd's has today released estimates for the 2011 and 2012 years of account of all non-aligned syndicates. We have already been advised of many of these, which have been posted here over the past few weeks. The complete set of forecasts is now available here.
It is encouraging to see a continued upward movement on the forecasts for 2011. Forecasts for non-aligned capacity are generally speaking much better than for the market as a whole, with most members via Argenta able to look forward to a profit in excess of 4% of capacity. The recent trend has been for managing agents to be able to improve their forecasts as they begin to take into account movements on closed years of account, and this appears to be the case again this year. Only four syndicates have reduced their forecast, while seven more have maintained the forecast published at 31 December 2012. The remaining nineteen syndicates have improved their forecasts. Part of this improvement will be explained by the weakening of sterling against Lloyd's key currency, the US dollar in the quarter. We will examine the forecasts in greater detailing in the next edition of our Quarterly Review. The May edition can be found here.
The opening forecast for the 2012 has been put at an encouraging (midpoint) profit of 4.2% of capacity for the market despite the losses from Superstorm Sandy impacting the year. Managing agents are cautious in forecasting the youngest open year at the fifth quarter stage, as business remains on risk (for example part of any loss arising out of this week's tornadoes in Oklahoma City will fall back to the 2012 underwriting year), but in the absence of material losses on the remaining run-off exposures, we would anticipate this forecast profit improving by the time the second quarter estimates are released at the end of August.